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Modeling long-term occupancy trends in Indiana bumble bees (Hymenoptera: Apidae).

Hannah G Kernen1, Christopher C Wirth1, Robert P Jean2

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|January 23, 2026
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Bumble bee populations in Indiana show varied occupancy trends. While some species increased in abundance, rising temperatures negatively impacted others, signaling potential pollinator community shifts.

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Area of Science:

  • Ecology
  • Conservation Biology
  • Entomology

Background:

  • Bumble bees (Bombus spp.) are vital pollinators facing declines due to climate change and habitat loss.
  • Disparities in species' range stability suggest complex responses to environmental stressors.
  • Understanding these trends is crucial for effective pollinator conservation strategies.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To analyze occupancy trends of nine common Indiana bumble bee species from the early 1900s to 2022.
  • To model the effects of temperature, crop richness, and crop extent on bumble bee occupancy.
  • To identify factors influencing bumble bee persistence and inform conservation efforts.

Main Methods:

  • Utilized historical specimen records from over 35 sources for occupancy modeling.
  • Developed two models to assess environmental factors influencing county-level bumble bee occupancy.
  • Analyzed trends across nine common bumble bee species in Indiana.

Main Results:

  • Occupancy probability increased over time for four species: Bombus bimaculatus, Bombus citrinus, Bombus fervidus, and Bombus griseocollis.
  • Higher temperatures significantly reduced occupancy likelihood for Bombus fervidus and Bombus vagans.
  • Crop richness and extent did not significantly affect bumble bee occupancy.

Conclusions:

  • Future climate warming may lead to differential persistence among bumble bee species, potentially restructuring Indiana's pollinator communities.
  • Incomplete recent specimen data (47/92 counties post-1990) underscores the need for expanded statewide sampling.
  • Continued monitoring is essential for understanding and conserving bumble bee populations amidst ongoing environmental changes.