Analysis of urban resilience assessment and spatiotemporal patterns in coastal cities under sea-level rise

With global climate warming, sea-level rise has become a significant challenge for coastal cities. A three-dimensional resilience model is developed based on resilience breadth, depth, and effectiveness, providing a comprehensive evaluation of urban resilience. Furthermore, the Mann-Kendall test (M-K test) was applied to analyze the spatiotemporal evolution of urban resilience, and a Grey Model (GM) was employed to forecast future resilience levels. Taking Shanghai as a case study, extensive data collection and processing were conducted for a thorough resilience assessment. The main findings include: (1)Shanghai's urban resilience has shown a significant declining trend since 2011, with notable spatial disparities between central and peripheral districts.(2)The three-dimensional model revealed structural imbalances (e.g., Pudong's "inverted truncated cone" shape), which traditional 2D models fail to capture.(3)Projections indicate that urban resilience will continue to decline through 2100, though the rate of decline is expected to slow.(4)Key drivers include sea-level rise, aging infrastructure, and regional disparities in economic and policy capacity.Our analysis highlights the need for differentiated resilience strategies to address rapidly evolving climate risks.