Prognostic utility of circulating tumor DNA in classical hodgkin lymphoma: A systematic review and individual

Amirhossein Shahsavand1, Shayan Forghani1, Mohammadamin Kharaghani1

  • 1Hematologic Malignancies Research Center, Research Institute for Oncology, Hematology and Cell Therapy, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran.

Insights

Circulating tumor DNA (ctDNA) levels can predict disease progression and mortality in Hodgkin lymphoma (HL) patients. Higher ctDNA concentrations, especially after treatment, indicate a worse prognosis and increased risk of death.

Area of Science:

  • Oncology
  • Molecular Diagnostics
  • Biomarkers

Background:

  • Over 20% of Hodgkin lymphoma (HL) patients experience treatment failure.
  • Identifying prognostic markers is crucial for optimizing HL management.
  • Circulating tumor DNA (ctDNA) is an emerging biomarker in various cancers.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To evaluate the prognostic utility of ctDNA in predicting outcomes for HL patients.
  • To assess the association between ctDNA levels and progression-free survival (PFS) and overall survival (OS).
  • To determine how ctDNA's prognostic value changes over the course of treatment.

Main Methods:

  • Systematic literature search of major databases (PubMed, Embase, etc.) up to March 2025.
  • Extraction and digitization of survival data from Kaplan-Meier curves.
  • Application of a hierarchical Bayesian model to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) and restricted mean survival times (RMSTs).

Main Results:

  • Analysis of 10 studies with 1,158 HL patients.
  • Elevated baseline ctDNA associated with inferior PFS (HR: 2.74) and OS (HR: 2.49).
  • Interim and end-of-treatment ctDNA positivity significantly predicted worse PFS and OS, with increasing prognostic strength over time.

Conclusions:

  • Higher ctDNA concentration in HL patients correlates with increased disease progression and mortality.
  • The prognostic significance of ctDNA intensifies as treatment progresses.
  • Clinical utility requires assay standardization, threshold validation, and longitudinal assessment.

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