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Updated: Jan 27, 2026

Flow-sorting and Exome Sequencing of the Reed-Sternberg Cells of Classical Hodgkin Lymphoma
Published on: June 10, 2017
Prognostic utility of circulating tumor DNA in classical hodgkin lymphoma: A systematic review and individual
Amirhossein Shahsavand1, Shayan Forghani1, Mohammadamin Kharaghani1
1Hematologic Malignancies Research Center, Research Institute for Oncology, Hematology and Cell Therapy, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran.
Insights
Circulating tumor DNA (ctDNA) levels can predict disease progression and mortality in Hodgkin lymphoma (HL) patients. Higher ctDNA concentrations, especially after treatment, indicate a worse prognosis and increased risk of death.
Area of Science:
- Oncology
- Molecular Diagnostics
- Biomarkers
Background:
- Over 20% of Hodgkin lymphoma (HL) patients experience treatment failure.
- Identifying prognostic markers is crucial for optimizing HL management.
- Circulating tumor DNA (ctDNA) is an emerging biomarker in various cancers.
Purpose of the Study:
- To evaluate the prognostic utility of ctDNA in predicting outcomes for HL patients.
- To assess the association between ctDNA levels and progression-free survival (PFS) and overall survival (OS).
- To determine how ctDNA's prognostic value changes over the course of treatment.
Main Methods:
- Systematic literature search of major databases (PubMed, Embase, etc.) up to March 2025.
- Extraction and digitization of survival data from Kaplan-Meier curves.
- Application of a hierarchical Bayesian model to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) and restricted mean survival times (RMSTs).
Main Results:
- Analysis of 10 studies with 1,158 HL patients.
- Elevated baseline ctDNA associated with inferior PFS (HR: 2.74) and OS (HR: 2.49).
- Interim and end-of-treatment ctDNA positivity significantly predicted worse PFS and OS, with increasing prognostic strength over time.
Conclusions:
- Higher ctDNA concentration in HL patients correlates with increased disease progression and mortality.
- The prognostic significance of ctDNA intensifies as treatment progresses.
- Clinical utility requires assay standardization, threshold validation, and longitudinal assessment.
Abstract:
Over 20 % of patients with Hodgkin lymphoma (HL) experience disease progression after initial treatment. We evaluated the prognostic utility of circulating tumor DNA (ctDNA) in HL patients. We systematically searched PubMed, Embase, the Cochrane Library, Scopus, and Web of Science up to March 22, 2025. Survival data were extracted from Kaplan-Meier curves and digitized to reconstruct individual patient-level datasets. We applied a hierarchical Bayesian model with weakly informative priors to estimate hazard ratios (HRs), restricted mean survival times (RMSTs), along with their 95 % credible intervals (CrI) up to five years for both progression-free survival (PFS) and overall survival (OS). Ten studies, including 1158 patients, were analyzed. Elevated baseline ctDNA was associated with inferior PFS (HR: 2.74; 95 % CrI: 1.30-5.75) and a 5-year RMST loss of 7.7 (1.2-17.3) months. Prognostic strength increased over time, with interim ctDNA positivity showing an HR of 5.99 (3.46-10.13; ΔRMST: 22.7 months; 12.9-33.2) and end-of-treatment ctDNA positivity showing an HR of 13.4 (3.97-41.87; ΔRMST: 39.2 months; 17.7-49.4). High baseline ctDNA was associated with worse OS (HR: 2.49; 1.07-5.80; ΔRMST: 11.6 months; 0.7-27.8). Similarly, positive ctDNA following treatment predicted worse OS (HR: 4.74; 1.60-14.47; ΔRMST: 16.2 months; 3.0-38.1). To conclude, in HL patients, a higher ctDNA concentration was associated with increased disease progression and mortality, with this association intensifying toward the end-of-treatment. Clinical implementation requires standardization of assay methods, validation of prognostic thresholds, and longitudinal assessment of the independent prognostic value of ctDNA.
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