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Research on aging-friendly design risk assessment model based on non-parametric estimation.

Hong Li1,2, MingYang Mao3,4, Yu-Qing Yin5

  • 1Guangzhou Huashang College, Guangzhou, 511300, China.

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|January 25, 2026
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Summary

This study introduces a new risk assessment model for aging-friendly design, improving elderly user safety and satisfaction by analyzing behavioral data to set optimal design parameters.

Keywords:
Aging-friendly designIntelligent interaction interfaceNon-parametric estimationRisk assessmentVaRWavelet analysis

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Area of Science:

  • Human-Computer Interaction
  • Gerontology
  • Risk Management

Background:

  • Current aging-friendly design relies on expert judgment and mean-based indicators, inadequately addressing elderly users' complex behavioral patterns and extreme risks.
  • This limitation leads to unclear boundaries for crucial design parameters like size, spacing, font, and feedback rhythm, impacting usability and safety.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To propose and validate a novel risk assessment model for aging-friendly interaction design.
  • To address the shortcomings of traditional methods in capturing nonlinear user behavior and extreme risks.
  • To establish data-driven, prudent boundaries for design parameters to enhance elderly user experience.

Main Methods:

  • Integration of non-parametric estimation (Kernel Density Estimation) for risk probability distributions.
  • Application of wavelet analysis for identifying temporal risk evolution.
  • Utilization of Value-at-Risk (VaR) for establishing prudent boundaries and Monte Carlo simulation for risk minimization.

Main Results:

  • The proposed model effectively identified high-risk design zones in an induction cooker interface.
  • Recommended parameters (button width ≥ 16 mm, font size ≥ 14 pt, response delay ≤ 500 ms) significantly reduced errors and task time.
  • Empirical tests with elderly participants demonstrated improved user satisfaction and safety.

Conclusions:

  • The developed model offers a data-driven, closed-loop system for aging-friendly design, moving beyond traditional mean-based approaches.
  • It provides a more robust method for controlling extreme risks and accommodating high-uncertainty user groups.
  • The approach has implications for multimodal interactions and intelligent elderly care systems.