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Updated: Jan 27, 2026

Using the Threat Probability Task to Assess Anxiety and Fear During Uncertain and Certain Threat
Published on: September 12, 2014
Computational Modelling Reveals Slower Safety Learning and Threat Extinction are Associated With Higher Anxiety
Tim Kerr1, Kirstin Purves1, Thomas McGregor1
1SGDP Centre, King's College London, UK.
Abstract:
Anxiety disorders are chronic, pervasive, and debilitating; characterised by a persistent or exaggerated response to distal or abstract threats. Impaired threat discrimination (distinguishing safe from threatening stimuli) and impaired threat extinction (learning a once threatening stimulus is now safe), are known risk factors in the development and persistence of anxiety disorders. These effects can be experimentally elicited through fear conditioning. First, repeated trials of paired aversive and neutral stimuli are delivered during a fear acquisition phase, followed by repeated trials with no aversive stimuli in a fear extinction phase. The effects are typically measured through comparison of end-phase data points, or simple descriptive or statistical models. Computational modelling, by contrast, can offer a hypothesis-driven, trial-by-trial mechanistic account of fear conditioning. This unmasks within subject task variance by estimating the rate of threat learning, safety learning, and threat extinction, examining individual differences in the cognitive mechanisms behind anxiety. A normative sample (n = 145) underwent a differential fear conditioning task on a bespoke smartphone app, in addition to completing an anxiety severity measure (GAD-7). Computational models fitted to task data estimated learning rates. Whilst the threat learning rate showed no association, the threat extinction and safety learning rates showed small negative associations with anxiety severity (ρ = -0.22, p = 0.01 & ρ = -0.21, p = 0.01 respectively). These findings are in keeping with prior studies using traditional analytical approaches, and indicate that anxious individuals are not quicker to develop fear of a stimulus, but take more time than their non-anxious counterparts to learn that a stimulus is safe. This study strengthens the evidence for impairments in fear extinction in those with anxiety, and the importance of learning rates as an index of anxiety severity, a previously hidden cognitive mechanism underlying anxiety persistence.
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