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Enhancing Gravitational-Wave Detection: A Machine Learning Pipeline Combination Approach with Robust Uncertainty
Gregory Ashton1, Ann-Kristin Malz1, Nicolo Colombo2
1Royal Holloway, Department of Physics, University of London, Egham Hill, Egham TW20 0EX, United Kingdom.
We developed a machine learning method to combine gravitational-wave searches, improving signal detection and providing reliable uncertainty estimates. This approach enhances confidence in identifying rare astrophysical events like binary neutron stars.
Area of Science:
- Astrophysics
- Data Science
- Signal Processing
Background:
- Gravitational-wave data contains noise, artifacts, and rare astrophysical signals.
- Existing search algorithms for compact binary coalescences have variable performance, complicating data interpretation.
Purpose of the Study:
- To present a machine-learning-driven approach for combining gravitational-wave search results.
- To provide robust, calibrated uncertainty quantification using conformal prediction.
- To improve the detection efficiency and confidence in multipipeline analyses of gravitational-wave events.
Main Methods:
- Utilized a machine-learning model to integrate outputs from multiple gravitational-wave search pipelines.
- Employed conformal prediction techniques for uncertainty quantification.
- Validated the approach using simulated gravitational-wave data.
- Applied the model to the Gravitational Wave Transient Catalog 3 (GWTC-3).
Main Results:
- Demonstrated improved detection efficiency through simulations.
- Enhanced confidence in multipipeline detections of gravitational-wave signals.
- Successfully applied the model to GWTC-3 data.
- Increased confidence in identifying subthreshold events, such as the binary neutron star candidate GW200311_103121.
Conclusions:
- The machine-learning approach offers a robust method for analyzing gravitational-wave data.
- Conformal prediction provides reliable uncertainty quantification for gravitational-wave event detection.
- This method improves the interpretation of complex gravitational-wave signals and enhances astrophysical discovery potential.

