Substantially lower estimates in China's offshore wind potential using farm-scale spatial modeling and wake effects

Area of Science:

• Renewable Energy Systems
• Climate Change Mitigation
• Wind Energy Technology

Background:

• Accurate offshore wind energy assessments are crucial for effective climate change strategies and energy planning.
• Previous estimates of China's offshore wind potential may not fully account for farm-level complexities.
• Understanding the nuances of wind farm layouts and wake effects is essential for realistic potential evaluations.

Purpose of the Study:

• To provide a detailed, farm-level assessment of China's offshore wind power potential.
• To incorporate realistic turbine layouts, wake loss modeling, and future climate scenarios into the evaluation.
• To compare the potential and economic/technical feasibility of nearshore bottom-fixed and deep-water floating wind farms.

Main Methods:

• Utilized remote sensing data for realistic offshore wind turbine layouts.
• Implemented wake loss modeling to account for energy reduction within wind farms.
• Analyzed future climate scenarios to project potential wind energy generation.

Main Results:

• China's farm-level offshore wind potential is estimated at 2.5-4.2 PWh yr^-1, significantly lower than prior estimates exceeding 5.6 PWh yr^-1.
• Wake loss effects within wind farms were found to be higher than previously assumed.
• Deep-water floating wind farms show higher potential density but incur greater costs compared to nearshore bottom-fixed farms.

Conclusions:

• Farm-level details and wake loss modeling are critical for accurate offshore wind potential assessments.
• The study provides a more realistic basis for China's renewable energy targets and regional strategies.
• Promoting floating wind technologies is vital for harnessing deep-water resources and advancing China's sustainable energy transition.