Using expert elicitation to predict feral cat, Felis catus, responses to management

Domestic cats that have become wild are primary drivers of species' decline globally. Multiple tools and strategies exist for managing cat populations; however, in large, unconstrained rural and remote areas effectiveness is often highly variable. Previous work showed cat populations should be reduced by at least 57% annually, on average, to achieve a sustained population reduction. We assess whether available lethal management scenarios in Australia were likely to meet this reduction threshold. We held a 2-day expert elicitation with 24 experts. Experts gave informed estimates of cat population reduction for 648 management scenarios combining lethal management techniques (e.g., aerial poison baiting), management decisions (e.g., poison bait type) and environmental conditions. We extrapolated the outcomes to an additional 216 scenarios (total 864) and combined the results to estimate when a scenario was likely to meet the population reduction threshold.

Expert estimates indicated 71 of 864 management scenarios met the population removal threshold. All 71 scenarios involved more than one management technique using combinations of cat-targeted baits, Eradicat (n = 51) and Curiosity (n = 17), or fox baits (n = 3). Scenarios in 'Deserts and xeric scrublands' and 'Grasslands, Savannas and Shrublands' were the most likely to be successful, particularly in below average rainfall years.

The expert elicitation and analytical techniques used here provide managers with practical guidance to assess the likely success of planned programs for effective lethal feral cat control. This study presents a flexible framework using expert knowledge to explore management options for more effective conservation strategies. © 2026 The Author(s). Pest Management Science published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of Society of Chemical Industry.