Future burden of MASLD in the United States: A state-level forecasting study, 2022-2050

  • 0Department of Internal Medicine, Griffin Hospital, Connecticut, United States.

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Summary

This summary is machine-generated.

Metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease (MASLD) projections show a substantial future burden in the US, with significant costs and geographic disparities. Targeted public health strategies are crucial for addressing this growing epidemic.

Area Of Science

  • Public Health
  • Epidemiology
  • Health Economics

Background

  • Metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease (MASLD) prevalence is rising globally.
  • Quantifying the future subnational burden of MASLD is essential for effective public health planning.
  • Current data lacks state-specific projections for MASLD's future impact.

Purpose Of The Study

  • To project the future burden of MASLD at the state level in the United States through 2050.
  • To estimate the associated direct healthcare costs of MASLD.
  • To inform policy and resource allocation for targeted public health interventions.

Main Methods

  • Developed a state-level forecasting model using Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2021 data.
  • Utilized time-series forecasting (ARIMA/ETS) for age- and sex-specific MASLD DALY rates (1990-2021).
  • Applied projected rates to state population projections and calculated healthcare costs with probabilistic sensitivity analysis.

Main Results

  • Projected total US MASLD burden of 5.5 million DALYs and over $2.3 trillion in healthcare costs by 2050.
  • California, Texas, and Florida are projected to have the highest absolute MASLD burden.
  • Higher DALY rates per capita are anticipated in Southern and Appalachian states.

Conclusions

  • The future burden of MASLD in the US is substantial, increasing, and geographically uneven.
  • State-level projections highlight the need for tailored regional public health strategies.
  • Data supports informed state-level policy and resource allocation to combat the MASLD epidemic.

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