Shifting Survival Horizons in Advanced Ovarian Cancer: A Conditional Survival Perspective

Advanced-stage epithelial ovarian cancer (EOC) is defined by biological heterogeneity and poor outcomes, and traditional survival metrics fail to reflect the evolving nature of prognosis as patients survive longer. This study aimed to evaluate conditional survival (CS) in advanced EOC using both overall survival (OS) and progression-free survival (PFS) metrics to provide a dynamic understanding of long-term outcomes. We retrospectively analyzed 808 patients with FIGO stage III-IV EOC who underwent surgery at Baskent University Ankara Hospital between 2004 and 2024. CS estimates were calculated for additional 1- and 5-year intervals among patients who had already survived 6 months, 1, 3, or 5 years after surgery. Median OS and PFS were 4.37 and 1.70 years, respectively. Peritoneal dissemination and platinum resistance were independent predictors of poor survival. Approximately 11% of patients achieved survival beyond ten years. The 1-year CS-OS increased from 87% at 6 months to 95% at 5 years, while the 5-year CS-OS rose from 49% to 66%; corresponding CS-PFS values increased from 89% to 95% and from 44% to 62%. Conditional survival analysis underscores that prognosis in advanced ovarian cancer is not static but continually improves with time survived and sustained disease control. These insights redefine long-term outcomes and provide a modern foundation for individualized patient counseling and survivorship planning.