Schistosomiasis in Saudi Arabia (2002-2024): A National Analysis of Trends, Regional Heterogeneity, and Progress...

Schistosomiasis remains a major neglected tropical disease globally and presents particular challenges for countries transitioning from control to elimination. Saudi Arabia represents a unique epidemiological setting, having shifted from historical endemic transmission to very low reported incidence, yet long-term national analyses remain limited. A retrospective longitudinal analysis of national schistosomiasis surveillance data from 2002 to 2024 was conducted to evaluate temporal trends, clinical subtypes, regional distribution, and demographic characteristics. Joinpoint regression was used to identify significant changes in temporal trends, and autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models were applied to forecast national and regional trajectories. National incidence declined markedly from 5.5 per 100,000 in 2002 to 0.12 per 100,000 in 2024, with a notable change around 2010, followed by sustained low-level incidence. Intestinal schistosomiasis accounted for most cases, with increasing concentration among adult non-Saudi males and near-elimination among children. Regionally, cases were confined to a limited number of western and southwestern regions, particularly Ta'if, Al Baha, Jazan, and Madinah. Forecasting analyses indicated continued low-level detection without evidence of national resurgence. These findings demonstrate a transition to an elimination-maintenance phase and highlight the need for sustained surveillance in historically endemic regions and mobile populations.