Environmental Drivers and Long-Term Dynamics of Copepod Communities in the Black Sea: Contrasts Between Warm and Cold...

Copepods are key components of marine food webs, linking primary producers such as microalgae to higher trophic levels, including many fish species. This study investigates long-term changes in the composition, density, and biomass of copepod communities along the Romanian coast of the Black Sea over six decades (1956-2015), based on historical records and recent monitoring from 18 sampling stations. Mean copepod density declined markedly over the study period, particularly during the cold season, decreasing from values exceeding 1000 ind/m³ in the 1960s to <300 ind/m³ after 2000, while biomass showed weaker but comparable long-term fluctuations. Seasonal variability was pronounced, with significantly higher densities and biomass during the warm season. Generalised Additive Models (GAMs) explained up to 40-55% of the variance in copepod density and biomass, depending on the season. During the warm season, phosphate exerted a positive effect on copepod abundance, consistent with bottom-up control via phytoplankton productivity, whereas during the cold season, temperature showed a positive effect and salinity a negative effect, indicating stronger physical control of copepod persistence. Species composition shifted over time, with a reduction in constant species and an increase in rare or accidental taxa in later decades. These results indicate that climate variability and anthropogenic pressures have reshaped copepod communities, with potential consequences for food-web efficiency and ecosystem resilience in the Black Sea.