Applying a Method to Estimate the Breeding and Non-Breeding Population Fractions of the Globally Threatened...

Population size estimates are essential for investigating numerous aspects of the ecology, evolution, and conservation of wildlife. However, the life cycles of many species include cryptic life stages that are difficult to detect or sample, such as the non-breeding fractions typical of many bird populations. Quantifying the proportions of breeders and non-breeders is crucial to better assess their conservation status and population trends. We propose a simple method applicable to species that show phenotypic differences between adults and juveniles. By quantifying the proportion of ages, the size of the whole population, and its productivity, the size of the non-breeding and breeding fractions can be inferred. We applied this approach to the red-spectacled amazon, Amazona pretrei, a threatened parrot endemic to the Brazilian Atlantic Forest. The entire global population aggregates in winter in a few localities to feed on the seeds of the Parana pine Araucaria angustifolia, a critically endangered tree whose range has declined >97% due to massive exploitation. From a global population of ~16,000 individuals in 2015 and ~20,000 individuals in 2017, our methodology allowed us to estimate a low proportion of juveniles (14%) and a large proportion of non-breeders (80%) within the adult population, with narrow confidence intervals. These proportions did not change between years, but the estimated number of breeding pairs increased, from ca. 1300 to 1700 pairs, in parallel with the global population increase. Our methodology, with its possible improvements to reduce uncertainty in estimates, can be applied to the long-term monitoring of this and many other species, to better understand their conservation challenges and inform effective management strategies.