Multidomain Predictors of Four-Year Risk for Dementia and Mild Cognitive Impairment Among Community-Dwelling Korean...

Dementia and mild cognitive impairment (MCI) are major public health concerns in rapidly aging societies. However, evidence from non-Western populations with self- or proxy-reported physician-diagnosed cognitive outcomes remains limited.

This study investigated the four-year (2018-2022) incidence of self- or proxy-reported dementia and MCI, and their multidomain risk markers in a nationally representative sample of 3432 Korean adults aged ≥ 65 years from the Korean Longitudinal Study of Aging. Weighted descriptive analyses and multinomial logistic regression accounting for the complex survey design (sampling weights, strata, and clusters) were used to identify demographic, functional, mental health, and social factors associated with the incidence of cognitive impairment. Adjusted predicted probabilities were estimated for age, depressive symptoms, and instrumental activities of daily living (IADL).

Over the four-year follow-up period, among 3432 initially cognitively normal community-dwelling older adults, 34 participants developed MCI and 70 developed dementia. Older age, increased IADL impairment, depressive symptoms, and multimorbidity were significantly associated with a higher likelihood of incident cognitive impairment, while living with family was associated with a lower likelihood. Frequent social interaction showed a protective association against dementia. Predicted probabilities demonstrated overall increasing trends across age, depressive symptoms, and IADL, reflecting general risk patterns.

These findings emphasize the importance of multidomain assessments for early detection and community-based prevention strategies. By identifying key clinical and social markers, this study provides culturally relevant evidence to support dementia risk management in rapidly aging populations, highlighting the protective roles of family co-residence and frequent social interaction among Korean older adults.