Application of a Temporal Fusion Transformer and Long-Term Climate and Disease Data to Assess the Predictive Power...

Vector-borne diseases are strongly influenced by climate, yet the magnitude and temporal variability of climate-disease relationships remain poorly quantified. Outbreaks occur abruptly, and responses are typically delayed, underscoring the need for predictive tools that can support proactive interventions. This study applies Temporal Fusion Transformers (TFTs) to long-term, high-resolution climate datasets and to weekly malaria and dengue case records from South Africa and Vietnam to assess predictive performance and identify key environmental drivers. The models incorporated diverse climatic predictors and large-scale climate indices and were trained using multi-horizon forecasting with novel loss functions and physics-based constraints. The best malaria model achieved an R² of 0.95 and an MAE of 4.98, while leading dengue models reached R² values up to 0.90. Variable-importance analyses derived from model-learned weights showed that extreme temperature and rainfall metrics were consistently the strongest predictors, with ENSO (El Niño Southern Oscillation) and IOD (Indian Ocean Dipole) improving longer-range malaria forecasts. Furthermore, climate-disease risk dynamics were explored, revealing specific temperature and rainfall thresholds associated with elevated transmission and highlighting non-stationary relationships across decades. These findings demonstrate accurate, interpretable forecasting offered by TFTs and represent a valuable tool for early warning and understanding of complex climate-disease interactions.