Threshold Effect of Time to Admission on Long-Term Mortality in Geriatric Hip Fractures: A 24-H Critical Window...

Objective: This study aimed to investigate the association between time to admission (TTA) and long-term mortality in patients with hip fractures, enabling surgeons to assess individual risks and prevent adverse outcomes. Methods: Demographic and clinical data of patients with hip fractures were obtained from medical records in our hospital. Patients aged 65 years or older were included. TTA was defined as the time from injury to first presentation at our institution. The primary outcome was long-term all-cause mortality. The regular multivariate Cox regression, restricted cubic spline, and two-piecewise model were used to explain the linear and curvilinear association between TTA and long-term mortality. The analyses were performed using EmpowerStats and R. Results: A total of 2361 patients were included in our study. There were 743 males and 1618 females, with a mean age of 79.44 ± 6.71 years. There were 1745 intertrochanteric fractures and 616 femoral neck fractures. We divided the patients into four groups according to TTA distribution: TTA ≤ 6 h, 6 h < TTA ≤ 12 h, 12 h < TTA ≤ 24 h, and TTA > 24 h, and the corresponding long-term mortality rates were 254 (25.53%), 85 (32.20%), 127 (32.56%), and 267 (37.50%). A curvilinear association was observed between TTA delay and long-term mortality in geriatric hip fractures, with 24 h serving as an inflection point. When TTA was less than 24 h, every one-hour increase in TTA was associated with a 1.6% increase in long-term mortality (HR = 1.016, 95% CI: 1.008-1.024; p < 0.001). When TTA exceeded 24 h, the long-term mortality risk showed no significant further increase with TTA (HR = 1.000, 95% CI: 1.000-1.000; p = 0.531). Conclusions: This study suggests that delayed admission is associated with a worse prognosis, and the mortality risk increases by approximately 1.6% per hour of delay within the first 24 h, after which the risk appears to stabilize. The first 24 h post-injury may represent a critical window for intervention.