Spatial and Temporal Dynamics of Birch-Mining Eriocrania Moths in an Urban Landscape over Four Decades

Understanding how urbanisation shapes species distributions and ecological interactions requires long-term, spatially structured data. Using an exceptionally rare 40-year dataset (1986-2025) from 150 habitat patches and 102 downtown grid cells in St. Petersburg, Russia, we examined patterns in birch (Betula pendula and B. pubescens) persistence, ground conditions, woody vegetation, and the occurrence of Eriocrania leaf-mining moths. Birch presence, birch abundance, and ground quality declined both toward the city centre and over time, whereas woody plant cover showed no clear spatial or temporal pattern. Eriocrania occurrence within birch-containing patches was influenced primarily by habitat type, artificial ground, and birch abundance, while distance to the city centre, year, and woody cover exerted no consistent effects. Habitat characteristics offered only moderate predictive power for local extinction risk in both birches and Eriocrania, indicating that multiple drivers interact to shape patch dynamics. Contrary to the widespread declines observed in many insect taxa, Eriocrania populations exhibited no directional density trend across four decades. This long-term stability highlights the resilience of specialised herbivores in heterogeneous urban landscapes and underscores the value of extended temporal datasets for detecting subtle or unexpected ecological responses to urbanisation.