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Modeling Extreme Rainfall Using the Generalized Extreme Value Distribution and Exceedance Analysis in Colima, Mexico
Raúl Renteria1, Raúl Aquino2, Mayrén Polanco3
1Facultad de Ingeniería Civil, Universidad de Colima, Coquimatlán 28400, Mexico.
None:
This study develops a statistical and technological framework to analyze extreme rainfall in Colima, Mexico, by integrating historical precipitation records, probabilistic modeling, and spatial visualization. Using data from CONAGUA meteorological stations, we identify high-intensity rainfall events and model their recurrence using the Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution to estimate key return periods. The results support flood-risk assessment and territorial planning in Colima. Spatial interpolation was performed in Python (version 3.13), and QGIS (version 3.38) produces exceedance maps that illustrate geographic variations in rainfall intensity across the state. These exceedance maps reveal a consistent spatial pattern, with the northern and western areas of Colima experiencing the highest frequencies of extreme events. Based on these results, the integration of real-time sensor technologies and satellite observations may improve flood monitoring and risk management frameworks.
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