Probabilistic Human Health Risk Assessment of Inorganic Arsenic Exposure Following the 2020 Taal Volcano Eruption,...

Volcanic eruptions can mobilize naturally occurring toxic elements such as arsenic into surrounding ecosystems, contaminating soil, water, and food webs. Despite increasing evidence of arsenic enrichment in volcanic regions, comprehensive exposure assessments that integrate dietary and drinking water pathways remain limited, particularly in post-eruption contexts where baseline data are scarce. Following the 2020 Taal Volcano eruption, this study conducted a probabilistic risk assessment to quantify aggregate exposure to inorganic arsenic (iAs) among residents of Batangas, Philippines. A Monte Carlo simulation framework (10,000 iterations) integrated post-eruption environmental data on total arsenic in soil, lake water, drinking water and clam tissues with modeled bioaccumulation and transfer factors for fish and major terrestrial crops. Two exposure scenarios, lower bound (50% iAs fraction) and upper bound (90% iAs fraction), were applied to capture uncertainty in arsenic speciation and bioavailability. Simulated iAs concentrations followed the order rice > corn > vegetables > root crops. Aggregate daily iAs doses averaged 3.0 ± 1.4 µg/kg bw/day (lower bound) and 4.0 ± 2.0 µg/kg bw/day (upper bound), with females showing slightly higher exposures and pregnant women exhibiting lower doses. Sensitivity analysis identified clam intake, rice intake, and iAs in rice, clams, and drinking water as dominant determinants of total exposure. All simulated individuals exceeded the U.S. EPA non-cancer reference dose (HQ > 1) and cancer risk benchmark (10^-6-10^-4), indicating substantial health concern. These findings highlight the urgent need for sustained environmental monitoring, arsenic speciation analyses, biomonitoring, and public health programs to guide evidence-based management in arsenic-affected volcanic regions.