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Health state prediction with reinforcement learning for predictive maintenance.

Anastasis Aglogallos1, Alexandros Bousdekis1, Stefanos Kontos1

  • 1Information Management Unit (IMU), Institute of Communication and Computer Systems (ICCS), School of Electrical and Computer Engineering, National Technical University of Athens (NTUA), Athens, Greece.

Frontiers in Artificial Intelligence
|January 28, 2026
PubMed
Summary
This summary is machine-generated.

Reinforcement Learning (RL) offers a powerful alternative to traditional machine learning for predictive maintenance, excelling in scenarios with evolving conditions. Proximal Policy Optimization (PPO) and Soft Actor-Critic (SAC) demonstrate the most effective and stable performance in CNC machine tool wear prediction.

Keywords:
Industry 4.0deep learningdegradation predictionmachine learningpredictive maintenancereinforcement learning

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Area of Science:

  • Manufacturing Technology
  • Artificial Intelligence
  • Machine Learning

Background:

  • Predictive maintenance is crucial for Industry 4.0, but traditional methods struggle with labeled data and adaptability.
  • Reinforcement Learning (RL) learns optimal policies through interaction, bypassing labeled data needs and handling equipment degradation dynamics.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To evaluate model-free RL algorithms for predictive maintenance in manufacturing.
  • To compare the performance of Proximal Policy Optimization (PPO), Advantage Actor-Critic (A2C), Deep Deterministic Policy Gradient (DDPG), and Soft Actor-Critic (SAC) in diverse environments.

Main Methods:

  • Formulated CNC machine tool wear prediction as a Markov Decision Process (MDP).
  • Implemented and tested four model-free RL algorithms: PPO, A2C, DDPG, and SAC.
  • Validated performance across four custom environments, analyzing learning dynamics, convergence, and generalization.

Main Results:

  • PPO and SAC exhibited the most stable and efficient performance.
  • SAC excelled in structured environments, while PPO demonstrated robust generalization capabilities.
  • A2C showed consistent long-term learning; DDPG underperformed due to limited exploration.

Conclusions:

  • RL shows significant potential for advanced predictive maintenance applications.
  • Algorithm selection should align with specific environment characteristics and reward structures for optimal results.