Regulated religion, fading belief: how Indonesians' religiosity has quietly changed, 2000-2020

Indonesia is a majority Muslim country with a significant influence of religion in public and private life. Islam, alongside the five others officially recognized religions, serves as a crucial moral foundation within the country's diverse cultural and governmental frameworks. However, the role of religion has been subject to debate over the years up to the recent politico-religious polarization observed during the last three presidential elections (2014, 2019, and 2024). Drawing from contemporary secularization theory, this study aims to explore the continuity and change in the societal role of religion in Indonesia over the past two decades. It tests the potential decline of religiosity among the populace amidst the continuing strong state's regulation on religion in the country. The study collects and analyzes secondary data from Badan Pusat Statistik (BPS or the Office of Indonesian National Statistics) and the World Values Survey to investigate continuities and shifts in religious adherence and affiliation, levels of socio-religious participation, and individual religiosity-including belief in God and frequency of daily or weekly prayer. The findings indicate that religious adherence and affiliation remain relatively high, coupled with a decent level of socio-religious participation. However, there is a decline in personal religious belief among the population. The contradiction between those three forms of religiosity-affiliation, participation and belief-might suggest an early stage of long-term secularization. In the last two decades, religion is often viewed as a formal identity marker in Indonesian public life, with more nuanced correlation to individuals' personal religious beliefs and practices.