Spatial variation in socio-economic vulnerability to Influenza-like Infection for the US population

Area of Science:

• Environmental Health
• Epidemiology
• Health Informatics

Background:

• Infectious diseases like Influenza-like Illness (ILI) disproportionately affect populations.
• Socio-economic factors significantly influence disease burden and health impacts.
• Understanding regional disparities is crucial for effective public health strategies.

Purpose of the Study:

• To quantify environmental health impacts and assess risk related to ILI.
• To introduce a novel vulnerability-based approach linking socio-economic factors to ILI.
• To develop a machine-learning framework for mapping state-level socio-economic vulnerability to ILI in the U.S.

Main Methods:

• Created a vulnerability index integrating 39 socio-economic and health indicators from CENSUS data.
• Employed a Random Forest Regression model to quantify state-level vulnerability for 2022 ILI data.
• Calculated Variance Inflation Factor (VIF) to assess and mitigate multicollinearity.

Main Results:

• Identified key vulnerability determinants: migration patterns, insurance coverage, and demographics (female, elderly populations).
• Generated a state-level vulnerability map showing significant regional disparities in ILI burden.
• District of Columbia, Massachusetts, Hawaii, New Mexico, and Rhode Island identified as highly vulnerable states (index > 0.35).

Conclusions:

• Findings underscore significant regional variations in ILI vulnerability linked to socio-economic conditions.
• Emphasizes the need for targeted public health interventions tailored to specific state-level vulnerabilities.
• The methodology is adaptable for assessing vulnerability to various infectious diseases, enhancing epidemic preparedness.