Decoding environmental regimes and spring phytoplankton bloom occurrence in the central Yellow Sea

Phytoplankton blooms, defined as a periods of high biomass, are key indicators of climate-driven ocean responses. Shifts in their timing and magnitude can substantially alter the marine ecosystem, yet the environmental regimes governing bloom development remain poorly constrained. We analyzed long-term environmental data (2003-2023) from the Central Yellow Sea (CYS) to decode the drivers of the spring phytoplankton bloom (SPB), which is defined into four developmental stages based on changes in chlorophyll-a (Chl-a). A machine-learning decision tree (DT) was employed to identify specific quantitative critical thresholds associated with each phase. Results show that the SPB initial stage represented low-light intensity in early-April. The peak stage was determined by strong-light intensity; thus, the Chl-a increased rapidly in mid-April. The decline stage corresponded to a high sea surface temperature (SST[Formula: see text]14.40 °C) in May, while the termination stage indicated no SPB occurrence after late-May due to very-high SST ([Formula: see text]17.27 °C). We classified four SPB types from phenology and discussed the unique environmental characteristics of each type. SPB peak timing is set by the coupled physical oceanic structure (SST-mixing-light), whereas atmospheric inputs modulate bloom magnitude. The study provides a consistent baseline and a physically interpretable phenology-threshold approach for integrated interpretation of timing and conditions.