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Published on: June 21, 2016
Advancing regulatory variant effect prediction with AlphaGenome
Žiga Avsec1, Natasha Latysheva2, Jun Cheng2
1Google DeepMind, London, UK. avsec@google.com.
Abstract:
Deep learning models that predict functional genomic measurements from DNA sequences are powerful tools for deciphering the genetic regulatory code. Existing methods involve a trade-off between input sequence length and prediction resolution, thereby limiting their modality scope and performance1-5. We present AlphaGenome, a unified DNA sequence model, which takes as input 1 Mb of DNA sequence and predicts thousands of functional genomic tracks up to single-base-pair resolution across diverse modalities. The modalities include gene expression, transcription initiation, chromatin accessibility, histone modifications, transcription factor binding, chromatin contact maps, splice site usage and splice junction coordinates and strength. Trained on human and mouse genomes, AlphaGenome matches or exceeds the strongest available external models in 25 of 26 evaluations of variant effect prediction. The ability of AlphaGenome to simultaneously score variant effects across all modalities accurately recapitulates the mechanisms of clinically relevant variants near the TAL1 oncogene6. To facilitate broader use, we provide tools for making genome track and variant effect predictions from sequence.
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Prediction Intervals
However, the point estimate is most likely not the exact value of the population parameter, but close to it. After calculating point estimates, we construct interval estimates, called confidence intervals or prediction intervals. This prediction interval comprises a range of values unlike the point estimate and is a better predictor of the observed sample value, y.

