To what extent do regional and temporal factors explain the variation in MSW generation? A Portuguese case study

Effectively addressing municipal solid waste (MSW) generation and management is critical to achieving sustainable development. As waste volumes grow and environmental pressures intensify, the need for effective strategies becomes increasingly urgent. In Portugal, more than half of MSW is still sent to landfill, despite national and European Union efforts to promote waste reduction and recovery. Identifying the main drivers of waste generation is essential to support evidence-based policies, guide infrastructure investments and accelerate the transition towards a more circular economy. This study analyses MSW generation across 23 Portuguese regions from 1995 to 2022, assessing economic, socio-demographic and policy drivers while accounting for the COVID-19 pandemic. Results show the strong influence of economic drivers (p < 0.001) in MSW generation while demographic variables show limited impact, except for population age. Tourism also contributes to regional waste generation, primarily due to interregional differences in tourism intensity. The COVID-19 pandemic increased MSW generation in the country (p < 0.05). Current policy instruments lack the strength or scope to influence MSW generation, reinforcing the need for more robust approaches. MSW generation is also strongly shaped by structural regional characteristics and year-specific conditions, with most variation explained by these factors, while the included predictors capture additional within-region differences. Overall, the findings underscore the importance of regional and temporal factors and emphasise the need for integrated, regionally tailored strategies to improve waste management and support sustainable policy development.