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How Has the COVID-19 Pandemic Affected the Influenza Seasonality Patterns in Different Climate Regions?-A Time-Series
Ricardo Fonseca1, Galana Mamo Ayana2,3, Patricia Lee1,4
1School of Medicine and Dentistry Griffith University Gold Coast Australia.
Health Science Reports
|January 29, 2026
Summary
The COVID-19 pandemic significantly altered global influenza patterns, with nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) drastically reducing cases. Influenza activity is now shifting post-pandemic, requiring continued monitoring.
Area of Science:
- Epidemiology
- Public Health
- Virology
Background:
- Influenza poses a significant global health burden, necessitating understanding of its geographical and temporal dynamics for effective prevention.
- The emergence of COVID-19 and associated nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) have impacted traditional influenza temporal patterns.
- Urgent need exists to analyze shifts in influenza activity pre- and during the COVID-19 pandemic across diverse climate regions.
Purpose of the Study:
- To compare long-term influenza activity patterns in temperate and tropical countries before and after the COVID-19 emergence.
- To quantify the impact of NPI stringency on influenza activity using interrupted time series (ITS) analysis.
- To understand evolving influenza seasonality and inform future control strategies.
Main Methods:
- Analysis of global influenza surveillance data from the FluNet database (2012-2022) across nine selected countries.
- Comparison of influenza activity seasonality in temperate vs. tropical regions.
- Interrupted time series (ITS) analysis to assess the effect of NPI stringency index (SI) on influenza patterns.
Main Results:
- Pre-pandemic, temperate countries showed winter seasonality, while tropical countries had irregular, longer patterns.
- A drastic reduction in influenza cases was observed globally during the pandemic, irrespective of testing levels.
- ITS analysis confirmed a significant inverse relationship between NPI stringency and influenza activity.
- Post-NPI removal, influenza cases have reemerged, indicating ongoing shifts in global patterns.
Conclusions:
- The COVID-19 pandemic has demonstrably altered global influenza's temporal patterns.
- Nonpharmaceutical interventions proved effective in significantly reducing influenza activity across all studied countries.
- Continued international collaboration and monitoring are crucial for anticipating and preventing future large-scale influenza outbreaks.
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