Fossil energy minimum viable scale

Area of Science:

• Energy infrastructure
• Environmental science
• Risk assessment

Background:

• The global transition to renewable energy necessitates the phase-out of existing fossil fuel infrastructure.
• This transition presents complex challenges, including the potential for unforeseen risks associated with aging or improperly decommissioned systems.
• Ensuring safety and achieving decarbonization goals requires a thorough understanding of these emerging infrastructural threats.

Purpose of the Study:

• To identify and analyze potential unseen infrastructural threats.
• To evaluate the implications of these threats for safety and decarbonization.
• To inform strategies for mitigating risks during the energy transition.

Main Methods:

• Systematic review of energy infrastructure decommissioning case studies.
• Analysis of historical data on industrial accidents and environmental incidents.
• Modeling of potential failure modes in legacy energy systems.

Main Results:

• Identified critical infrastructure vulnerabilities, including subsurface contamination and structural instability.
• Quantified potential safety risks to personnel and the public.
• Assessed the impact of infrastructure failures on decarbonization timelines and costs.

Conclusions:

• The phase-out of fossil energy systems poses significant, often unrecognized, infrastructural risks.
• Proactive risk assessment and management are essential for safe and effective decarbonization.
• Further research is needed to develop comprehensive strategies for managing legacy energy infrastructure.