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The disappearing quasi-biennial oscillation under sustained global warming
Fuhai Luo1, Fei Xie2, Tianjun Zhou3,4
1State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Hazards Risk Governance, School of Systems Science and Faculty of Geographical Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, China.
Nature Communications
|January 29, 2026
Summary
Global warming may cause the stratospheric quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) to weaken and disappear, impacting climate forecasts. This weakening is linked to increased tropical upwelling and wave activity, posing challenges for future climate change adaptation.
Area of Science:
- Atmospheric Science
- Climate Science
- Meteorology
Background:
- The stratospheric quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) influences global weather and climate variability.
- Recent decades show a weakening QBO amplitude and unprecedented disruptions.
- Long-term QBO evolution and its tropospheric impact remain uncertain.
Purpose of the Study:
- To investigate the future evolution of the QBO under global warming.
- To assess the QBO's impact on tropospheric circulation and climate predictability.
- To understand the mechanisms driving QBO changes.
Main Methods:
- Utilized CMIP6 models with projections extending beyond 2100.
- Conducted targeted sensitivity experiments.
- Analyzed changes in QBO amplitude, period, tropical upwelling, and wave activity.
Main Results:
- Projected global warming leads to a progressively weaker amplitude and shorter period for the QBO.
- The QBO risks complete disappearance under sustained high-emission scenarios.
- Weakening is attributed to enhanced tropical upwelling; shortening to intensified upwelling and wave activity.
Conclusions:
- The projected QBO changes will reduce the predictability of 2-3-year tropospheric climate forecasts.
- The potential disappearance of the QBO presents novel challenges for climate change adaptation.
- Understanding these QBO dynamics is crucial for accurate climate projections.
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