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Updated: Jan 31, 2026

Quasi-light Storage for Optical Data Packets
Published on: February 6, 2014
The disappearing quasi-biennial oscillation under sustained global warming
Fuhai Luo1, Fei Xie2, Tianjun Zhou3,4
1State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Hazards Risk Governance, School of Systems Science and Faculty of Geographical Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, China.
Abstract:
The stratospheric quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) is a key modulator of interannual variability in global weather and climate. Over recent decades, the amplitude of the lower-stratospheric QBO has weakened, and in recent years the QBO has experienced unprecedented disruptions. However, the longer-term evolution of the QBO and its impact on tropospheric circulation remain uncertain. Here, based on CMIP6 models with extended projections beyond 2100 and targeted sensitivity experiments, we show that under ongoing global warming, the QBO exhibits a progressively weaker amplitude and shorter period, eventually risking complete disappearance. This is projected to reduce the predictability of 2-3-year climate forecasts in the troposphere. The weakening of the QBO amplitude arises from enhanced tropical upwelling, whereas the shortening of its period results from the combined influence of strengthened upwelling and intensified wave activity. The potential disappearance of the QBO poses new challenges for climate change under high emission.
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