[Racial and regional inequalities in homicides in Brazil: a geostatistical and propensity score analysis]

Studies have demonstrated racial selectivity in homicides in Brazil. This study analyzes racial and regional inequalities in homicides using geostatistical techniques and propensity score methods. Clusters of municipalities with high (hot spots) and low (cold spots) homicide rates were identified and, with demographic variables, were used to calculate propensity scores. After matching, Black individuals had a 49% higher likelihood of dying by homicide compared with White individuals. Homicides occurred predominantly among young, single men with low educational attainment. Geostatistical analysis showed that municipalities in hot spot clusters had homicide rates five times higher than in cold spot clusters, with the Northeast region being the most affected. Skin color remained an independent factor associated with homicide, even after adjusting for demographic and spatial variables, underscoring the racial selectivity of homicide in Brazil. This study proposes an integrated approach combining geospatial analysis and propensity score methods to assess social and spatial inequalities of homicides in the country, providing for more equitable allocation of public policy resources to reduce homicides.