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The AMORE Score for Predicting the 5-Year Risk of Hemorrhagic Stroke in Asymptomatic Moyamoya Disease
Tomohito Hishikawa1, Satoshi Murai2, Yoichi M Ito3
1Department of Neurosurgery, Kawasaki Medical School, Kurashiki, Japan, thishi@med.kawasaki-m.ac.jp.
Introduction:
The aim of this study was to establish the score for predicting the 5-year risk of hemorrhagic stroke in patients with asymptomatic moyamoya disease (MMD) using the Asymptomatic Moyamoya Registry (AMORE) data and to evaluate its reproducibility.
Methods:
The AMORE study was a prospective cohort study that recruited participants from 18 centers in Japan. A total of 103 patients completed the 5-year follow-up and of these, 6 patients experienced hemorrhagic stroke. According to the results of multivariate analysis, we selected age ≥46 years, grade-2 choroidal anastomosis, and microbleeds as variables in the prediction model. The cumulative rates of hemorrhagic stroke were estimated per hemisphere using the Kaplan-Meier method. Nonparametric bias-corrected confidence intervals (CIs) based on the Bootstrap sample were calculated to assess the reproducibility of the 5-year risk of hemorrhagic stroke.
Results:
We created the AMORE score (0-3 points) to estimate the 5-year risk of hemorrhage with 1 point for each of age ≥46 years, grade-2 choroidal anastomosis, and microbleeds. The AMORE score was applied to a total of 135 MMD hemispheres. The 5-year risk of hemorrhagic stroke per hemisphere was 1.8%, 1.6%, 15.4%, and 50.0% for AMORE scores of 0, 1, 2, and 3, respectively. The cumulative rate of hemorrhagic stroke for AMORE score 3 was significantly higher than for AMORE score 0 (hazard ratio [HR], 38.7; 95% CI, 3.45-433; p = 0.003) and score 1 (HR, 41.8; 95% CI, 3.74-468; p = 0.002). The corresponding 90% CIs were 0%-5.6%, 0%-5.2%, 0%-38.5%, and 0%-100%, and the corresponding 80% CIs were 0%-4.7%, 0%-4.5%, 5.9%-33.3%, and 23%-100% for AMORE scores 0, 1, 2, and 3, respectively.
Conclusion:
The 5-year risk of hemorrhagic stroke in patients with asymptomatic MMD can be adequately estimated using the AMORE score.
Insights
The AMORE score effectively predicts the 5-year hemorrhagic stroke risk in asymptomatic moyamoya disease (MMD) patients. This score, based on age, choroidal anastomosis, and microbleeds, aids in risk stratification for MMD.
Area of Science:
- Neurology
- Vascular Neurology
- Neuroimaging
Background:
- Asymptomatic moyamoya disease (MMD) poses a risk of hemorrhagic stroke.
- Accurate prediction of this risk is crucial for patient management.
- Existing risk stratification tools for MMD may require refinement.
Purpose of the Study:
- To establish a predictive score for the 5-year risk of hemorrhagic stroke in asymptomatic moyamoya disease (MMD) patients.
- To evaluate the reproducibility of the developed prediction score using the Asymptomatic Moyamoya Registry (AMORE) data.
Main Methods:
- Prospective cohort study involving 103 patients with asymptomatic MMD from 18 Japanese centers.
- Multivariate analysis identified age ≥46 years, Grade -2 choroidal anastomosis, and microbleeds as key predictive variables.
- Kaplan-Meier method and Bootstrap resampling were used to estimate and assess the reproducibility of 5-year hemorrhagic stroke risk.
Main Results:
- The AMORE score (0-3 points) was developed, incorporating age, choroidal anastomosis, and microbleeds.
- Estimated 5-year hemorrhagic stroke risks per hemisphere were 1.8% (score 0), 1.6% (score 1), 15.4% (score 2), and 50.0% (score 3).
- Significantly higher risk observed for AMORE score 3 compared to scores 0 and 1 (HR > 38, p < 0.003).
Conclusions:
- The AMORE score provides an adequate estimation of the 5-year hemorrhagic stroke risk in patients with asymptomatic moyamoya disease.
- The score facilitates risk stratification and may inform clinical decision-making for asymptomatic MMD patients.
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