Factors Affecting Smallholders' Perception of Climate Change in Eritrea

Area of Science:

• Agricultural Adaptation and Resilience
• Climate Change Perception Studies
• Socio-economic Factors in Farming

Background:

• Understanding smallholder farmer perceptions of climate change is vital for effective adaptation strategies.
• Climate change impacts necessitate proactive adaptation measures in agricultural systems.
• The Model of Private Proactive Adaptation to Climate Change (MPPACC) provides a framework for analyzing farmer responses.

Purpose of the Study:

• To develop and validate indices for climate change perception, threat appraisal, and coping appraisal among Eritrean smallholder dairy farmers.
• To identify socio-economic and environmental factors influencing these appraisals.
• To examine the interrelationships between perception, threat appraisal, and coping appraisal.

Main Methods:

• Survey data from 261 smallholder dairy farmers in Eritrea.
• Application of the Model of Private Proactive Adaptation to Climate Change (MPPACC).
• Validation of constructs using Cronbach's α and principal axis factoring.
• Regression-based parallel mediation analysis with bootstrapping.

Main Results:

• A high percentage of farmers linked climate change to shifting seasons (93%), erratic rainfall (76%), and rising temperatures (88%).
• Perception scores were positively associated with extension services, education, and media exposure, and negatively with higher altitude.
• Threat appraisal, not coping appraisal, mediated the effects of media exposure, heat stress, and age/experience interaction on adaptation perceptions.

Conclusions:

• Institutional support, education, and communication significantly shape smallholder farmers' climate change perception.
• The MPPACC framework effectively integrates socio-economic and cognitive factors in understanding farmer adaptation.
• Findings offer insights for enhancing smallholder farmer resilience in Eritrea and similar agricultural contexts.