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Deciphering hydrological drought controls on atrak river discharge predictability: a multiscale dynamic assessment.
Mohammad Behroozi1, Mohammad Hadi Fattahi2, Abolghasem Sayadi1
1Department of Civil Engineering, Marv. C., Islamic Azad University, Marvdasht, Iran.
Environmental Science and Pollution Research International
|January 31, 2026
Summary
Hydrological drought significantly impacts Iran's Atrak River discharge, increasing chaos and randomness. Analyzing river dynamics reveals cycles and improves drought forecasting for better water management.
Area of Science:
- Hydrology and Water Resources Management
- Chaos Theory and Complex Systems Analysis
- Environmental Science and Climatology
Background:
- Hydrological drought poses a significant challenge in Iran, impacting water resources and river discharge patterns.
- Effective management of river discharge is critical for addressing drought impacts.
- Understanding the complex dynamics of river discharge under drought conditions is essential.
Purpose of the Study:
- To quantify how hydrological drought influences the chaotic, multiscale, and predictable dynamics of Atrak River discharge.
- To integrate chaos theory, multifractal analysis, and cross-correlation techniques for analyzing river discharge dynamics.
- To assess the impact of drought on the sensitivity, randomness, and predictability of river flow.
Main Methods:
- Utilized daily discharge data and monthly drought indices for the Atrak River (1978-2018).
- Applied chaos theory metrics like Lyapunov Exponent (LE) and Approximate Entropy (ApEn) for dynamic analysis.
- Employed multifractal analysis and cross-correlation techniques, including sensitivity analysis and autocorrelation adjustment.
Main Results:
- Drought intensifies sensitivity to initial conditions and randomness, with delayed effects observed in LE and ApEn.
- Outlier removal enhanced chaos detection, reduced LE by 74.5%, and narrowed multifractal spectra.
- Multifractal analysis identified distinct cycles: a 41-year flood cycle and a 25-year drought cycle.
Conclusions:
- Findings enhance drought and discharge forecasting models for the Atrak River.
- Improved understanding facilitates precise water allocation and reservoir management strategies.
- The study provides crucial insights for mitigating drought impacts in water-stressed regions like Iran.
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