Are the data good enough? Assessing cocaine markets and indicators in The Netherlands, Denmark, and Sweden

The European cocaine market has undergone rapid transformations in recent years, with supply increasing and shifting geographically from southern to northwestern ports. These changes have implications for Northern Europe, as shorter distribution routes may affect prices, purity, and consumption. An unstable cocaine market may also increase risks of drug-related systemic violence. This commentary assesses the utility of EU cocaine market indicators by examining trends in the Netherlands, Denmark and Sweden. Using data on price, purity and aggregate use reported to the European Union Drugs Agency (EUDA), we evaluate the quality and consistency of these indicators. We found that reporting for wholesale price and purity was highly inconsistent, while retail-level data were more complete, particularly from 2007 to 2023. Wastewater analysis provided a proxy for aggregate use. Consistent with theoretical expectations, the markets in the three countries appear integrated, suggesting a supply route originating in the Netherlands and moving northward. Data deficiencies constrain research and policymaking at a time when a changing market increases risks of instability and violence.