Associations between early-life unpredictability and mental health during the Israel-Hamas war

Exposure to war increases the risk for emotional and psychological distress, especially among people with pre-existing vulnerabilities. According to life history models of development and psychopathology, unpredictability experienced in the first years of life should forecast greater vulnerability to emotion dysregulation and psychological symptoms in adulthood. Moreover, the sensitization hypothesis posits that such effects should be particularly manifested in currently stressful environments. The present research investigated trajectories of emotion dysregulation and psychological distress experienced by adult Israeli Jews before and during the Israel-Hamas war that started on October 7, 2023, as well as the moderating role of early-life unpredictability. The participants (N = 720) were assessed twice before the war and twice during the first six months of the war. In each assessment, they completed measures of emotion dysregulation (DERS-18) and general psychological distress (SCL-10R). Retrospective reports of early-life unpredictability were collected at T1 regarding the first 10 years of life. Multilevel models indicated that psychological distress and emotion dysregulation increased co-dependently after the war started. Early-life unpredictability was associated with greater psychological distress and emotion dysregulation before the war and a larger increase in psychological distress after the war started. Moreover, early-life unpredictability was associated with a greater increase in psychological distress among war-exposed individuals. These findings indicate that the Israel-Hamas war exerted an emotional and psychological toll on Israeli adults. They further suggest that early-life unpredictability is a general risk factor for emotion dysregulation and psychological distress in adulthood and predicts worse mental health in war-exposed individuals.