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Published on: July 16, 2018
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Modelled impact of a multi-cancer early detection screening programme on the demand for diagnostics in England
Joanne Martin1, David A Jones2, Libby Ellis2
1Queen Mary University of London, London, UK. j.e.martin@qmul.ac.uk.
British Journal of Cancer
|January 31, 2026
Summary
Introducing multi-cancer early detection (MCED) screening in England may slightly increase demand for diagnostic tests like colonoscopies and CT scans. Early cancer detection through screening could reduce future diagnostic needs for symptomatic cases.
Area of Science:
- Oncology
- Public Health
- Health Services Research
Background:
- Multi-cancer early detection (MCED) screening aims to identify cancer signals early.
- Timely confirmatory diagnostic testing is crucial for individuals with positive MCED results.
- This study estimates the impact of introducing MCED screening on diagnostic testing demand in England.
Purpose of the Study:
- To estimate the potential change in demand for diagnostic procedures in England following the introduction of MCED screening.
- To quantify the impact on specific diagnostic tests such as colonoscopy and CT scans.
Main Methods:
- Diagnostic demand was modeled based on referral volumes from MCED screening and test performance metrics.
- The study considered an eligible population aged 50-79 years.
- Predicted demand was compared against current annual usage using NHS datasets.
Main Results:
- An established MCED screening program screening 70% of the eligible population (~13 million) annually could increase colonoscopy demand by +2.09% (+13,730 procedures).
- Computed tomography (CT) demand could see the greatest absolute increase (+0.76%; +62,320 procedures).
- This translates to approximately 1040 colonoscopies and 4720 CT scans per million screened.
Conclusions:
- The relative increase in diagnostic testing demand from MCED screening is predicted to be modest.
- High screening uptake in a large eligible population could lead to a substantial number of procedures.
- Early cancer diagnosis via screening may decrease future demand for diagnostics in symptomatic patients.
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