Urban futures under pressure: assessing and predicting ecological risk in a metropolitan district of North-East India

As rapid urbanization poses profound threats to environmental sustainability, the primary objective of this study was to assess the ecological risk by examining the intricate interactions among land-use and structural change indicators, ecological stressors, and anthropogenic pressures within the Kamrup Metropolitan District. A multi-method framework was applied: fuzzy decision-making trial and evaluation laboratory (DEMATEL) to identify key determinants and generate the ecological risk map; total interpretive structural modeling (TISM) to reveal hierarchical and causal pathways among influencing factors; and a hybrid cellular Automata-Markov chain (CA-Markov) model to simulate land use and land cover dynamics and predict future ecological risk under different scenarios. The results showed that fuzzy DEMATEL identified population density, land-use change rate, built-up footprint, and fractional vegetation cover as the dominant drivers of ecological stress, and the TISM hierarchy demonstrated how these drivers trigger a cascading sequence leading to vegetation loss, fragmentation, elevated land surface temperatures, and declining air, water, and plant diversity. Supported by an AUC value of 0.779, the model also pinpointed the clustering of high-risk zones within the urban core, where intense anthropogenic pressure coincides with ecological sensitivity. Scenario projections further showed that ecological vulnerability escalates under an over-expansion pathway, whereas conservation-oriented land management substantially limits future risk. By providing location-specific management recommendations, this research emphasizes the necessity of proactive planning to mitigate ecological deterioration and bolster resilience amid rapid urban growth.