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A machine learning framework to assess global mangrove forestation potential under current and future climate
Guohao Li1, Yifei Ma1, Tianyu Zhuo1
1School of Environmental Science and Engineering, Tianjin University, Jinnan District, Tianjin 300350, China.
Environmental Research
|February 1, 2026
Summary
Global mangrove forestation potential is 156,682 km2, driven by soil moisture and proximity to the sea. Climate change may increase potential, but sea-level rise poses risks, limiting synergistic benefits for carbon sequestration.
Area of Science:
- Environmental Science
- Forestry
- Climate Change Research
- Machine Learning Applications
Background:
- Mangrove forestation is a key strategy for carbon sequestration.
- Understanding global mangrove cover potential and its drivers is crucial for effective conservation and restoration.
- Machine learning offers advanced tools for analyzing complex environmental data.
Purpose of the Study:
- To develop a machine learning framework to assess global mangrove cover potential and identify key drivers.
- To quantify mangrove forestation potential considering land-use constraints and carbon storage capacity.
- To project future mangrove cover potential under different climate change scenarios.
Main Methods:
- Utilized a machine learning framework integrating random forest, SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP), and partial dependence plots (PDP).
- Analyzed 48 environmental layers including climate, topography, soil, and marine characteristics.
- Quantified forestation potential and carbon storage under socioeconomic and ecological land-use constraints.
Main Results:
- Identified 156,682 km2 of global mangrove forestation potential under current climate conditions.
- Soil saturated water content and distance to sea were identified as primary drivers of mangrove cover.
- Projected increases in mangrove cover potential under climate change scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP5-8.5), but significant reduction due to sea-level rise under SSP5-8.5.
- Indonesia, Brazil, and Australia show the highest carbon storage potential from mangrove forestation.
Conclusions:
- The study provides a detailed global map of mangrove forestation potential, supporting international restoration efforts.
- Key drivers like soil moisture and proximity to the sea are critical for successful mangrove establishment.
- Climate change presents both opportunities and threats to mangrove expansion, necessitating adaptive management strategies.
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