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The implications of uncertainties on global lithium resources availability estimations
Dongping Zhou1, Steve Pye1, Brunilde Verrier1,2
1UCL Energy Institute, University College London, London WC1H 0NN, UK.
Iscience
|February 2, 2026
Summary
Global lithium demand is rising due to the energy transition. This study estimates 35.5 Mt of lithium availability, highlighting potential supply shortfalls and the need for investment in new deposits and recycling.
Area of Science:
- Geosciences
- Resource Economics
- Materials Science
Background:
- The global energy transition necessitates increased lithium, a critical element for batteries.
- Energy security concerns and decarbonization goals are driving unprecedented demand for lithium.
- Uncertainty regarding future lithium supply to meet escalating demand requires comprehensive assessment.
Purpose of the Study:
- To assess long-term global lithium availability under conditions of uncertainty.
- To construct a global bottom-up deposit database and generate a cumulative availability curve (CAC).
- To compare projected lithium supply with International Energy Agency (IEA) demand scenarios.
Main Methods:
- Developed a six-step methodology integrating Monte Carlo and depletion curve analyses.
- Constructed a comprehensive global deposit database for lithium resources.
- Estimated lithium availability and associated production costs in USD per tonne of lithium carbonate equivalent (LCE).
Main Results:
- Estimated a total of 35.5 Mt of lithium available at costs ranging from $1,194 to $31,590 USD/t LCE (2023).
- Identified current supply reliance on low-cost Australian ore, with future production potentially shifting to brine sources.
- Projected potential supply shortfalls under conservative demand assumptions and increased costs for meeting ambitious climate goals.
Conclusions:
- Physical and technical uncertainties significantly influence lithium supply availability.
- Timely investment in new lithium deposits and robust recycling infrastructure is crucial.
- Meeting future lithium demand, especially for ambitious climate targets, necessitates strategic planning and investment.
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