From Social Attitudes to Outcomes: The Role of Institutional Quality in Development

Institutional quality is a critical determinant of development outcomes, yet the role of social attitudes in shaping institutions remains underexplored. This study examines the impact of public attitudes toward gender equality, environmental protection, and immigration on institutional strength and socioeconomic development.

Using data from Wave 7 of the World Values Survey, we apply a classification of attitudes based on a combination of set theory and ordinal preference logic. Respondents are grouped into 27 attitude combinations and then aggregated into eight categories. Country-level proportions are computed. To explore relationships among variables, we apply partial correlation network modelling using the EBICglasso algorithm with the Extended Bayesian Information Criterion (EBIC) for model selection. This network approach reveals how institutional nodes-such as the rule of law, democratic stability, and market organisation-mediate the influence of social attitudes. Composite indicators of institutional quality and development outcomes are constructed using Principal Component Analysis. We then conduct mediation analysis through path modelling with these composite scores, estimating both direct and indirect effects. Bootstrapping with 5,000 replications ensures statistical robustness.

Network modelling reveals that institutional quality is a key bridge between social attitudes and development outcomes. Path modelling confirms that institutional quality mediates these effects in most cases. Neutral-positive and mixed-neutral attitudes yield the most potent positive indirect effects, underscoring their role in consensus building. Negative attitudes are associated with institutional weakening and lower development performance. Interestingly, moderately negative views may drive democratic reform when linked to institutional accountability.

Social attitudes affect development primarily through their influence on institutions. Contrary to common assumptions, moderate and neutral positions are not passive; they foster institutional adaptability and stability. These findings underscore the importance of targeting centrist groups in policy design to reinforce inclusive governance and long-term development.