The Predictive Value of Early β-hCG Levels After Embryo Transfer in In Vitro Fertilization Treatment

Area of Science:

• Reproductive Endocrinology
• Clinical Embryology
• In Vitro Fertilization (IVF)

Background:

• Serum beta-human chorionic gonadotropin (β-hCG) is a key marker for assessing pregnancy viability after IVF.
• The precise predictive value of early β-hCG levels for live birth outcomes remains an area of ongoing research.

Purpose of the Study:

• To evaluate the predictive capability of early serum β-hCG measurements for live birth.
• To determine optimal β-hCG thresholds on post-transfer days 12 and 14 for predicting IVF success.

Main Methods:

• Retrospective chart review of 755 women undergoing IVF (2017-2023).
• Serum β-hCG levels measured on post-transfer days 12 and 14.
• Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis to identify predictive cutoffs for live birth.

Main Results:

• Live birth achieved in 54.8% of participants.
• Significantly higher β-hCG levels observed on days 12 and 14 in the live birth group (P < 0.001).
• ROC analysis identified optimal cutoffs: day 12 (205.5 mIU/mL) and day 14 (535 mIU/mL), with ~72% sensitivity and specificity.

Conclusions:

• Early serum β-hCG levels are robust predictors of live birth following IVF.
• Defined clinical thresholds for β-hCG can aid in early pregnancy assessment and patient counseling.
• This study supports the use of early β-hCG levels for predicting IVF success.