Spatio-temporal heterogeneity and drivers of landscape aesthetics and ecosystem services in the Bohai Rim urban...

With the accelerating process of global urbanization, the relationship between ecosystem services (ESs) and landscape aesthetics (LA) has become a critical issue for understanding sustainable development. Nevertheless, relatively little research has focused on the interactions between LA and multiple ESs, as well as their driving mechanisms, in coastal urban agglomerations. This study focused on the Bohai Rim region(BRR) to investigate the spatio-temporal evolution, synergies and trade-offs, and driving factors of LA and five ESs, including carbon storage (CS), habitat quality (HQ), food production (FP), soil conservation (SC), and water yield (WY). A comprehensive analytical framework was established by integrating correlation analysis, partial least squares structural equation modeling (PLS-SEM), multiscale geographically and temporally weighted regression (MGTWR), bivariate spatial autocorrelation, and eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost). The results showed that: (1) From 1990 to 2023, FP, SC, and WY exhibited overall increasing trends, whereas HQ showed a continuous decline. (2) Most ES pairs exhibited synergies, and PLS-SEM further indicated significant positive associations among regulating (SC, CS), supporting (WY, HQ), and cultural/supplying (LA, FP) functions. (3) CS, HQ, FP, and SC were largely synergistic with LA, whereas WY demonstrated trade-offs with LA in most areas. (4) Bivariate spatial autocorrelation revealed significant spatial clustering of LA-ES relationships, with high-high clusters mainly located in Shandong and Liaoning Provinces and low-low clusters in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region. (5) XGBoost effectively identified key drivers, highlighting Factor G as the primary determinant of LA, and Factors G and E as the main drivers of SC and WY, respectively. Based on these findings, we proposed a zoning-based management and optimization strategy for enhancing ESs in the BRR. This study provides new insights into the mechanisms driving ESs under urbanization and offers important theoretical support for guiding regional efforts in ecosystem conservation and long-term sustainability.