Quantitative risk assessment for the compound drought-wildfire disaster.

Area of Science:

• Environmental Science
• Climate Science
• Disaster Management

Background:

• Compound drought-wildfire (CDW) disasters are a growing global threat.
• Existing methodologies lack quantitative assessment of CDW disaster risk, hindering effective response planning.

Purpose of the Study:

• To propose and validate a quantifiable methodology for assessing compound drought-wildfire disaster risk.
• To simulate drought-induced weather conditions and assess their impact on wildfire spread and severity.

Main Methods:

• Applied a 12-month drought scenario (30-year return period) and normal climate conditions.
• Utilized the Fire Weather Index (FWI) to calculate Drought-FWI (DFWI) and Normal-FWI (NFWI).
• Developed monthly risk maps to identify high-risk areas for CDW disasters.

Main Results:

• Quantified the regional risk of CDW disasters using estimated DFWIs.
• Demonstrated the significant impact of drought on wildfire risk through quantitative comparison of DFWI and NFWI.
• Identified high-risk areas and temporal patterns for CDW events.

Conclusions:

• The proposed methodology provides essential quantitative information for CDW disaster response.
• Highlights the critical need for integrated drought and wildfire response management.
• Emphasizes the substantial influence of drought conditions on wildfire severity and spread.