Global Disease Burden of Traumatic Joint Dislocation from 1990 to 2021 and its prediction to 2045

Traumatic joint dislocations of the hip, knee, and shoulder (DOH, DOK, and DOS) significantly impact global healthcare. This study assesses the global burden of joint dislocations using the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2021 database, focusing on their association with the socio-demographic index (SDI).

Data from the GBD 2021 are analyzed to determine the age-standardized rates (ASR) of incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability (YLDs) for dislocations. We integrate the SDI with the concentration index, assessing disparities in the burden of these joint dislocations. Frontier analysis is performed to identify potential improvement areas and disparities among countries by development status. The age-period-cohort (APC) model projects the disease burden to 2045, with a focus on age and gender distributions and primary causes.

From 1990 to 2021, the incidence, prevalence, and YLDs of DOH/DOK/DOS all increase, while ASRs decline, suggesting a deceleration in growth. YLDs of DOH, DOK, and DOS rise by 57.21%, 28.38%, and 15.48%, respectively. Men exhibit a higher burden, yet women show a steeper rise. Significant geographical variation exists, with lower SDI countries facing higher burdens. Falls and road injuries remain the main contributors to the burden, and lower-development countries demonstrate potential for reduction. Temporal trends vary by age, sex, and SDI, with projections indicating continued disparities to 2045.

Traumatic joint dislocations show marked heterogeneity in age, sex, and SDI, with the most significant differences in low-income regions. Research should prioritize policy development and targeted prevention and treatment strategies for groups at high-risk for joint dislocation to effectively mitigate the disease burden.