Analysis of United States Federal Government Projections on Anticipated Shortages in the Orthopedic Surgeon Workforce

There is a paucity of research on the supply and adequacy of the orthopedic surgeon workforce. This study assessed United States federal government projections on the supply and demand of orthopedic surgeons to 2037.

This was a cross-sectional analysis of orthopedic surgeons using data from the Health Resources and Services Administration (2025 to 2037). Supply was defined as the number of full-time equivalent (FTE) physicians. Demand was defined as the number of FTE physicians needed to support health care needs. Adequacy was defined as the ratio of supply and demand. Trends were analyzed with linear regression and comparisons were made with chi-squared tests.

From 2025 to 2037, the supply of orthopedic surgeons was projected to decrease from 31,980 to 30,620 (4.3% decrease, P < .001), whereas demand was projected to increase from 33,690 to 35,850 (6.4% increase, P < .001). Orthopedic surgeon adequacy was projected to decrease from 94.9% to 85.4% (P < .001). By 2037, non-metropolitan areas were expected to have less adequacy than metropolitan areas (45.1% vs 91.6%, P < .001). The South (78.4%) had the lowest projected adequacy (P < .001). By 2037, the states with the lowest projected adequacy were West Virginia (54.5%), Arkansas (60.0%), and Delaware (61.5%). By 2037, orthopedic surgery ranked 9 out of 20 for physician adequacy relative to the 20 largest specialties by number of physicians.

There are projected deficiencies in the supply of orthopedic surgeons, which are greatest in non-metropolitan areas, the South, and certain states like West Virginia. Future work is needed to increase the supply of orthopedic surgeons in identified areas.