Spatial identification of priority restoration-protection regions based on ecosystem services-climate-human framework...

The Tibetan Plateau (TP), known as Asia's "Water Tower" and a global biodiversity hotspot, plays a pivotal role in sustaining water security for billions of people downstream and in regulating atmospheric circulation at the hemispheric scale. However, accelerated climate change and intensifying anthropogenic pressures have triggered widespread ecosystem degradation. Spatially explicit restoration-protection (Res-Pro) frameworks that incorporate ecosystem services (ESs), climate and human drivers, and inter-ES relationships remain underdeveloped. In this study, we developed a novel ESs-climate-human ecological framework by synergistically coupling InVEST-based ES quantification, self-organizing map (SOM)-driven landscape zoning, and spatial statistical diagnostics using GeoDa and Spearman's rank correlation analysis. The results indicate that most ESs exhibit a similar spatial pattern, generally decreasing from southeast to the northwest. From 2000 to 2020, the high-value areas of water yield (WY), soil retention (SR), and carbon sequestration (CS) expanded in the southeastern region, habitat quality (HQ) remained stable, while sand fixation (SF) declined due to reduced wind-erosion-prone areas. The composite ecosystem services index (CESI) improvement was positively correlated with increased precipitation, but negatively correlated with rising temperature and intensified human activities, reflecting the complex interplay between natural and anthropogenic factors. Based on ESs-climate-human dynamics, we delineated five Res-Pro priority areas (Levels I-V), covering 10.74%, 1.85%, 4.97%, 13.59%, and 14.62% of the TP's total area respectively. Considering trade-offs, synergies, and ES bundles, we propose targeted ecological management strategies to guide policymakers in enhancing the ecological barrier functions of the TP.