Explainable machine learning model for predicting short-term outcomes in sepsis- induced coagulopathy

Sepsis-Induced coagulopathy (SIC) is not only a common complication in the development process of sepsis but also related to poor prognosis of sepsis. We aimed to establish a machine learning (ML) model to predict the 28-day mortality risk of patients with SIC.

We collected data for model training from the Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care IV Database version 2.2 to establish the model. We extracted patient data from the First Affiliated Hospital of Wenzhou Medical University for the model's external validation. We used Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator (LASSO) regression and logistic regression analysis to identify predictive factors for a 28-day mortality risk. Then, we built prognostic prediction models for SIC patients using multiple ML classification models. We evaluated predictive performance using Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curves, calibration curves, and Decision Curve Analysis (DCA). We used Shapley Additive Explanations (SHAP) to interpret the models.

We selected seventeen variables for model development, and the XGBoost model performed the best. The area under the curve (AUC) (95% CI) of the test set reached 0.840 (0.810-0.870), with an accuracy of 0.807, sensitivity of 0.836, and specificity of 0.798. The model also demonstrated excellent predictive performance in external validation, with an AUC (95% CI) of 0.864 (0.794-0.934).

We constructed an XGBoost model and provided model interpretability using the SHAP. This model provides a basis for assessing the 28-day mortality risk of patients with SIC, aiding in clinical decision support and the formulation of personalized treatment strategies.