Predicting the current and future distribution of Helianthus tuberosus L. in China using the MaxEnt model under climate change scenarios

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Using Generative Art to Convey Past and Future Climate Transitions

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Published on: March 31, 2023

Yuying Liu¹, Qijun Zhao¹, Yanhong Dai²

¹College of Agriculture and Animal Husbandry, Qinghai University, Xining, Qinghai, China.

Frontiers in Plant Science

|February 5, 2026

Abstract

Introduction:

Predicting the biogeographic shifts of Helianthus tuberosus L. (H. tuberosus) under climate change is critical for its conservation and sustainable cultivation.

Methods:

We utilized occurrence records (n=295) and environmental variables to model current and future distributions across China via a hyperparameter-tuned MaxEnt framework under four Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP126-SSP585, 2050s-2090s).

Results:

The model identified land cover (28.7%), vegetation index NDVI (23.7%), and minimum winter temperature (Bio6, 14.7%) as dominant drivers, collectively explaining 92.3% of distribution constraints. Currently, highly suitable habitats (6.03% of China's area) cluster in Yunnan, Guizhou, and central Jiangxi. Future projections indicate a 20.4% expansion of these habitats in northwest China due to winter warming, while southeastern coastal regions contract by 9.1% under extreme precipitation. The geographic centroid shifts 197- 238 km northwestward.

Discussion:

This shift highlights northwest China as a key climate refuge for H. tuberosus. These results prioritize conservation efforts and support strategic cultivation in climate-resilient zones.

Keywords:

Helianthus tuberosus MaxEnt biogeographic shift climate change habitat suitability

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