Dementia incidence and prevalence in older adults with HIV: a 23-year retrospective cohort study

To compare dementia incidence and prevalence by HIV status, race/ethnicity, and sex.

A retrospective cohort, 2000-2023.

Adults with HIV aged at least 50 years and 1 : 20 matched individuals without HIV from Kaiser Permanente, a U.S. healthcare system, were included. Dementia diagnoses were identified via electronic health records. We estimated rates of incident dementia diagnoses and prevalence, overall and by time period (2000-2004, 2005-2009…2020-2023) using Poisson regression, and assessed trends using Joinpoint regression. Covariate-adjusted rate ratios compared dementia by HIV status, with sub-analyses stratified by race/ethnicity and sex.

Among 24 762 people with HIV and 494 963 people without HIV (86.9% men, 45.5% White, 23.1% Black, 20.3% Hispanic), incident dementia diagnoses declined from 2000 to 2023 in both people with and without HIV (-7.68 and -2.70% per period, respectively). Overall, the incidence of dementia diagnosis was higher in people with HIV (adjusted incidence rate ratio [aIRR]=1.72, 95% CI=1.59-1.85). In the most recent period (2020-2023), this difference was not statistically significant (aIRR=1.16, 95% CI=0.99-1.35), partly due to increases in diagnoses among people without HIV during this period. Dementia prevalence remained higher in people with HIV, overall (adjusted prevalence ratio [aPR]=1.71, 95% CI=1.61-1.82) and in 2020-2023 (aPR=1.59, 95% CI=1.46-1.73), with similar patterns by race/ethnicity and sex.

Incident dementia diagnoses have declined in people with HIV and are approaching those of people without HIV, with consistent trends across demographic subgroups. However, prevalence remains elevated, likely reflecting excess risk from earlier years. These findings highlight the need for sustained attention to cognitive health and the integration of dementia-related services in HIV care.