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Mitigation of ozone vegetation damage in China through sector-based emission control towards carbon neutrality
Zeyu Ye1, Xu Yue1, Chenguang Tian1
1State Key Laboratory of Climate System Prediction and Risk Management, Jiangsu Collaborative Innovation Center of Atmospheric Environment and Equipment Technology, School of Environmental Science and Engineering, Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology (NUIST), Nanjing, 210044, China.
Abstract:
Surface ozone (O3) pollution poses a growing threat to terrestrial ecosystem productivity in China. Here, we quantify the mitigation potential of summertime O3-induced losses in gross primary productivity (GPP) under China's carbon neutrality scenario by isolating the effects of emission reductions from individual sectors and their combinations. Using a chemistry-carbon modeling framework, we project substantial decreases in summertime surface O3, leading to national GPP recoveries of 52.3 TgC in 2030 and 123.7 TgC in 2060 relative to present day. These correspond to mitigation efficiencies of 14.1 TgC TgNOx-1 and 24.1 TgC TgNOx-1, respectively. Among all sectors, transportation emission reductions exhibit the highest efficiency in mitigating O3-induced GPP loss, due to their widespread NOx-dominated emissions and spatial overlap with vegetation-rich regions. In contrast, emission controls from industrial and power sectors alone offer limited benefits and may even exacerbate O3 pollution in urban areas. These risks can be largely reduced through coordinated, multi-sectoral emission controls. Overall, our findings highlight the co-benefits of O3 pollution control for both climate change mitigation and ecosystem protection towards China's carbon neutrality targets.
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